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14th Jul 2025

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Pick Breakdown

Why we like each pick, in plain terms · site average sits at 76.6%

Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
Over 2.5 China Super League
Strong lean · 74/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 68.9% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare
Over 2.5 Estonia Meistriliiga
Strong lean · 74/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 68.9% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
1 Finland Veikkausliiga
Worth a look · 63/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 tips have actually beaten our site average lately, landing at 76.9% over the last 90 days. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Worth a look · 63/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 tips have actually beaten our site average lately, landing at 76.9% over the last 90 days. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
1 Lithuania Toplyga
Worth a look · 63/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 tips have actually beaten our site average lately, landing at 76.9% over the last 90 days. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Worth a look · 63/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 tips have actually beaten our site average lately, landing at 76.9% over the last 90 days. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
U Espanola W vs S. Wanderers W
1 Chile Primera Division Women
Worth a look · 63/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 tips have actually beaten our site average lately, landing at 76.9% over the last 90 days. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.

Just our read of the numbers -- not betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.


Got Questions About Today's Picks?

Tap a question to see the numbers behind each pick

Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 68.9% for us across the last 90 days (61 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 68.9% against a site average of 76.6%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 68.9% for us across the last 90 days (61 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 68.9% against a site average of 76.6%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 76.9% for us across the last 90 days (329 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
Yes, historically -- 1 has actually run ahead of our overall 76.6% average, landing at 76.9% across 329 graded tips.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Spain U19 vs Germany U19
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 76.9% for us across the last 90 days (329 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
Yes, historically -- 1 has actually run ahead of our overall 76.6% average, landing at 76.9% across 329 graded tips.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 76.9% for us across the last 90 days (329 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
Yes, historically -- 1 has actually run ahead of our overall 76.6% average, landing at 76.9% across 329 graded tips.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Guangdong GZ-Power vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 76.9% for us across the last 90 days (329 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
Yes, historically -- 1 has actually run ahead of our overall 76.6% average, landing at 76.9% across 329 graded tips.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
U Espanola W vs S. Wanderers W
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 76.9% for us across the last 90 days (329 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
Yes, historically -- 1 has actually run ahead of our overall 76.6% average, landing at 76.9% across 329 graded tips.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.

Today's Confidence Ladder

Sat 11 Jul · Ranked by stated win probability

Locked In
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
Over 2.5 China Super League
80%
Locked In
Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare
Over 2.5 Estonia Meistriliiga
80%
Fancied
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
1 Finland Veikkausliiga
50%
Fancied
50%
Fancied
Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
1 Lithuania Toplyga
50%
Fancied
50%
Fancied
U Espanola W vs S. Wanderers W
1 Chile Primera Division Women
50%

Latest Winnings

10/07/26
Euro U19 Women
Germany U19 W vs Spain U19 W
2
@1.35
0-1
10/07/26
Russia Youth League
Chertanovo M. U19 vs Krasnodar U19
2
@1.33
1-3
10/07/26
Argentina Primera B
Arsenal Sarandi vs Defensores Unidos
1
@1.43
3-1
10/07/26
South Korea WK League
Seoul W vs Suwon FC W
X2
@1.13
0-3
09/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
1
@1.24
3-2
09/07/26
Finland Kakkonen C
Musa vs Grlfk
Over 2.5
@1.37
3-1
09/07/26
World Cup 2026
France vs Morocco
Over 1.5
@1.27
2-0
09/07/26
Club Friendly
Unterhaching vs Regensburg
Over 2.5
@1.42
2-0
09/07/26
Argentina Primera Women
Independiente W vs Racing Club W
2
@1.33
1-3
08/07/26
Morocco Coupe Du Trone
FAR Rabat vs Stade Marocain
1
@1.19
2-1
08/07/26
USA USL League Two
Cleveland Force vs Steel City
2
@1.23
0-1
08/07/26
USA USL League Two
Delaware vs Eagle FC
1
@1.17
4-1
08/07/26
Argentina Primera Women
Union de Santa Fe W vs San Lorenzo W
2
@1.16
1-2
08/07/26
Club Friendly
Dinamo Zagreb vs Koper
Over 2.5
@1.42
2-2
07/07/26
Club Friendly
Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen
Over 1.5
@1.14
1-1
07/07/26
Euro U19 Women
Spain U19 W vs Sweden U19 W
1
@1.17
3-0
07/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
UNA Strassen vs La Florita
1
@1.27
1-0
07/07/26
Club Friendly
Legia vs Beer Sheva
Over 2.5
@1.47
3-1
07/07/26
Australia NPL ACT
Monaro Panthers vs Queanbeyan City
1X
@1.14
2-1
07/07/26
World Cup 2026
Argentina vs Egypt
1
@1.36
3-2

Performance by Tip Type
7d30d90dAll
X2 100%
3W  /  0L  · 3 tips
1X 81.8%
18W  /  4L  · 22 tips
1 81.1%
86W  /  20L  · 106 tips
Over 2.5 76%
19W  /  6L  · 25 tips
Over 1.5 75.9%
22W  /  7L  · 29 tips
2 74.2%
23W  /  8L  · 31 tips

Win Rate Grid

Tip type × day of week · last 180 days

Tip TypeMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
1 69% 90% 83% 66% 78% 79% 73%
1X 62% 89% 80% 88% 78% 83% —
2 55% 79% 83% 77% 71% 75% 75%
Over 1.5 64% 85% 60% 77% 86% 100% —
Over 2.5 64% 65% 73% 75% 60% 100% 75%
X2 — 67% — — 100% — —

Reliability Tracker

Comparing win rate across three rolling 30-day windows -- steadiest markets rise to the top

1X Rock Steady
77.8%
0-30d
73.7%
30-60d
76.9%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

1 Rock Steady
78.7%
0-30d
78.6%
30-60d
74.4%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

Over 1.5 Rock Steady
72%
0-30d
76.5%
30-60d
80%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

Over 2.5 A Bit Choppy
71.4%
0-30d
62.1%
30-60d
76.5%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

2 A Bit Choppy
74.2%
0-30d
72%
30-60d
88.2%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

X2 Streaky
100%
0-30d
66.7%
30-60d
—
60-90d

Big swings between hot and cold spells -- treat any single run with a pinch of salt.

Rock Steady = ≤12pp swing · A Bit Choppy = 13–25pp · Streaky = >25pp. Min. 5 tips/window.


Betting Terms, Explained
BTTS
Short for Both Teams To Score -- wins if each side nets at least once, whatever the final score.
Over 1.5 Goals
Needs 2+ total goals in the match to land, regardless of which side scores them.
Over 2.5 Goals
Needs 3+ total goals in the match -- a step up in risk from Over 1.5.
Double Chance
Covers two of the three possible results in one bet (e.g. Home win or Draw), trading some odds for extra safety.
Asian Handicap
A goal head-start or deficit applied to a team before kickoff, used to level out mismatched sides.
Correct Score
A bet on the exact final scoreline -- long odds, low hit rate, high reward.

Market Depth Index

How often we publish each market vs how often it lands · last 90 days

1
1
Volume329 tips
Accuracy76.9%
253W / 76L
2
2
Volume72 tips
Accuracy76.4%
55W / 17L
3
Over 2.5
Volume61 tips
Accuracy68.9%
42W / 19L
4
Over 1.5
Volume51 tips
Accuracy74.5%
38W / 13L
5
1X
Volume48 tips
Accuracy75%
36W / 12L
6
X2
Volume7 tips
Accuracy85.7%
6W / 1L

Minimum 3 settled tips required to show up here.


Win Rate Tracker
7d30d90d
76.6% Excellent Last 30 days
0%50%100%
Won147 tips
Lost45 tips
147
Won
45
Lost
@1.27
Avg Odds
-2.8%
ROI
192
Settled
18+ Gamble responsibly BeGambleAware

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