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19th Apr 2025

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Pick Breakdown

Why we like each pick, in plain terms · site average sits at 79.5%

Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Over 2.5 China Super League
Strong lean · 75/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 69.4% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Celje vs Mura
Over 2.5 Slovenia PRVA Liga
Strong lean · 75/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 69.4% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Coquimbo W vs Huachipato W
Over 2.5 Chile Primera Division Women
Strong lean · 75/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 69.4% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
1 Ireland FA Cup
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.2% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City
1 Australia Victoria PL
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.2% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
St Patricks vs Wexford
1 Ireland FA Cup
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.2% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
1 Iceland Division 2
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.2% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
1 China Super League
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.2% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.

Just our read of the numbers -- not betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.


Got Questions About Today's Picks?

Tap a question to see the numbers behind each pick

Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 69.4% for us across the last 90 days (62 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 69.4% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Celje vs Mura
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 69.4% for us across the last 90 days (62 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 69.4% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Coquimbo W vs Huachipato W
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 69.4% for us across the last 90 days (62 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 69.4% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.2% for us across the last 90 days (326 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.2% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.2% for us across the last 90 days (326 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.2% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
St Patricks vs Wexford
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.2% for us across the last 90 days (326 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.2% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.2% for us across the last 90 days (326 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.2% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.2% for us across the last 90 days (326 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.2% against a site average of 79.5%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.

Today's Confidence Ladder

Fri 17 Jul · Ranked by stated win probability

Locked In
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Over 2.5 China Super League
80%
Locked In
Celje vs Mura
Over 2.5 Slovenia PRVA Liga
80%
Locked In
Coquimbo W vs Huachipato W
Over 2.5 Chile Primera Division Women
80%
Fancied
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
1 Ireland FA Cup
50%
Fancied
Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City
1 Australia Victoria PL
50%
Fancied
St Patricks vs Wexford
1 Ireland FA Cup
50%
Fancied
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
1 Iceland Division 2
50%
Fancied
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
1 China Super League
50%

Latest Winnings

16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Ferencvaros vs Vojvodina
1
@1.44
3-0
16/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk
1
@1.22
1-0
16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Over 1.5
@1.17
1-2
16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Vestri vs Qarabag
Over 2.5
@1.42
0-3
16/07/26
Iceland Divsion 1
Afturelding vs Leiknir
1
@1.39
3-2
16/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
Shkendija vs Europa FC
1
@1.22
1-0
16/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
RFS vs Glentoran
1
@1.42
2-0
16/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
Zalgiris vs Petrovac
1
@1.43
2-1
15/07/26
Club Friendly
Ajax vs Bochum
Over 1.5
@1.15
1-1
15/07/26
Australia NPL Northern NSW
Charlestown Azzurri vs Weston Bears
Over 2.5
@1.38
0-5
15/07/26
Brazil Catarinense U20
Criciuma U20 vs Concordia U20
1
@1.40
1-0
15/07/26
Brazil Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus
1
@1.19
1-0
15/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Univ Craiova vs ML Vitebsk
Over 1.5
@1.16
1-0
15/07/26
Kazakhstan Cup
Ordabasy vs Altai
1
@1.35
3-1
15/07/26
Club Friendly
Patro Eisden vs St Truiden
Over 2.5
@1.34
0-4
14/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka
1
@1.37
4-0
14/07/26
China Super League
Zhejiang Professional vs Qingdao Hainiu
Over 2.5
@1.38
3-2
14/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Larne vs Tre Flori
1
@1.18
2-1
14/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Riga vs Ararat Armenia
Over 1.5
@1.23
3-2
14/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
KUPS vs Vardar
1X
@1.14
2-3

Stats are currently being built in the background. Please check back shortly.

Win Rate Grid

Tip type × day of week · last 180 days

Tip TypeMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
1 71% 90% 83% 66% 78% 79% 73%
1X 67% 89% 80% 88% 78% 83% —
2 55% 79% 83% 77% 71% 75% 75%
Over 1.5 69% 87% 67% 77% 86% 100% —
Over 2.5 64% 67% 77% 75% 60% 100% 75%
X2 — 67% — — 100% — —

Reliability Tracker

Comparing win rate across three rolling 30-day windows -- steadiest markets rise to the top

1 Rock Steady
79.8%
0-30d
81.1%
30-60d
74.3%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

1X A Bit Choppy
78.9%
0-30d
76.5%
30-60d
63.6%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

Over 2.5 A Bit Choppy
77.3%
0-30d
60.9%
30-60d
68.8%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

2 A Bit Choppy
76%
0-30d
68%
30-60d
88.9%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

Over 1.5 Streaky
75.9%
0-30d
77.8%
30-60d
50%
60-90d

Big swings between hot and cold spells -- treat any single run with a pinch of salt.

X2 Streaky
100%
0-30d
66.7%
30-60d
—
60-90d

Big swings between hot and cold spells -- treat any single run with a pinch of salt.

Rock Steady = ≤12pp swing · A Bit Choppy = 13–25pp · Streaky = >25pp. Min. 5 tips/window.


Betting Terms, Explained
BTTS
Short for Both Teams To Score -- wins if each side nets at least once, whatever the final score.
Over 1.5 Goals
Needs 2+ total goals in the match to land, regardless of which side scores them.
Over 2.5 Goals
Needs 3+ total goals in the match -- a step up in risk from Over 1.5.
Double Chance
Covers two of the three possible results in one bet (e.g. Home win or Draw), trading some odds for extra safety.
Asian Handicap
A goal head-start or deficit applied to a team before kickoff, used to level out mismatched sides.
Correct Score
A bet on the exact final scoreline -- long odds, low hit rate, high reward.


Win Rate Tracker
7d30d90d
79.5% Excellent Last 30 days
0%50%100%
Won155 tips
Lost40 tips
155
Won
40
Lost
@1.27
Avg Odds
+0.9%
ROI
195
Settled
18+ Gamble responsibly BeGambleAware

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