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23rd Feb 2025

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Pick Breakdown

Why we like each pick, in plain terms · site average sits at 80.1%

Lillestrom vs Viking
Over 2.5 Norway Eliteserien
Strong lean · 75/100
We're giving this a 80% shot -- that's a confident number by our own standards. Over 2.5 has been a slower burner for us at 70.6% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Ind. del Valle vs Tecnico U
1 Ecuador Liga Pro
Worth a look · 69/100
This one sits at 60% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.6% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Basaksehir vs Inter Turku
1 Conference League Qualifier
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.6% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta
1 Brazil Serie B
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.6% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
River Plate 2 vs Barracas Central 2
1 Argentina Reserve League
Worth a look · 64/100
This one sits at 50% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 1 has been a slower burner for us at 78.6% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Queen of South vs Aberdeen
2 Scotland League Cup
Speculative · 48/100
This one sits at 20% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 2 has been a slower burner for us at 76.1% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Lanus W vs San Lorenzo W
2 Argentina Primera Women
Speculative · 48/100
This one sits at 20% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 2 has been a slower burner for us at 76.1% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.
Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Braga
2 Conference League Qualifier
Speculative · 48/100
This one sits at 20% -- not a banker, more of a value angle. 2 has been a slower burner for us at 76.1% over 90 days -- still playable, just factor it in. Fixture context and current form were weighed in too -- always worth a final team-news check before kickoff.

Just our read of the numbers -- not betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.


Got Questions About Today's Picks?

Tap a question to see the numbers behind each pick

Lillestrom vs Viking
We've put this at a 80% chance of landing. Over 2.5 tips have hit 70.6% for us across the last 90 days (68 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 70.6% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Ind. del Valle vs Tecnico U
We've put this at a 60% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.6% for us across the last 90 days (313 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.6% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Basaksehir vs Inter Turku
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.6% for us across the last 90 days (313 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.6% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.6% for us across the last 90 days (313 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.6% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
River Plate 2 vs Barracas Central 2
We've put this at a 50% chance of landing. 1 tips have hit 78.6% for us across the last 90 days (313 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 78.6% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Queen of South vs Aberdeen
We've put this at a 20% chance of landing. 2 tips have hit 76.1% for us across the last 90 days (67 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 76.1% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Lanus W vs San Lorenzo W
We've put this at a 20% chance of landing. 2 tips have hit 76.1% for us across the last 90 days (67 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 76.1% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.
Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Braga
We've put this at a 20% chance of landing. 2 tips have hit 76.1% for us across the last 90 days (67 graded), which fed into the call. Combine that with recent form and it's a pick we're comfortable putting our name to.
It's been a bit patchier for us -- 76.1% against a site average of 80.1%, so we lean on it selectively rather than every time it shows up.
Team news is the big one -- a surprise absence up front or in goal can shift things fast. It's always worth a quick check of the lineups nearer kickoff, and keeping an eye on whether the odds move noticeably in the hours before the game.

Today's Confidence Ladder

Wed 22 Jul · Ranked by stated win probability

Locked In
Lillestrom vs Viking
Over 2.5 Norway Eliteserien
80%
Fancied
Ind. del Valle vs Tecnico U
1 Ecuador Liga Pro
60%
Fancied
Basaksehir vs Inter Turku
1 Conference League Qualifier
50%
Fancied
Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta
1 Brazil Serie B
50%
Fancied
River Plate 2 vs Barracas Central 2
1 Argentina Reserve League
50%
Longshot
Queen of South vs Aberdeen
2 Scotland League Cup
20%
Longshot
Lanus W vs San Lorenzo W
2 Argentina Primera Women
20%
Longshot
Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Braga
2 Conference League Qualifier
20%

Latest Winnings

21/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb
Over 1.5
@1.21
1-1
21/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Mjallby vs Lincoln Red Imps
Over 2.5
@1.44
3-0
21/07/26
UCL Qualifiers
Fenerbahce vs Gornik Zabrze
Over 2.5
@1.38
1-0
21/07/26
China FA Cup
Wuhan Three Lions vs Shandong Taishan
Over 2.5
@1.40
2-2
21/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
Goteborg vs Levadia
Over 1.5
@1.16
1-2
18/07/26
Ireland National League Women
Athlone WFC W vs Bohemians WFC W
1
@1.13
3-0
18/07/26
Lithuania Toplyga
Kauno Zalgiris vs FA Siauliai
1
@1.24
4-0
18/07/26
Lithuania 1 Lyga
FK Minija vs Jonava
1
@1.22
2-1
18/07/26
Norway Eliteserien
Viking vs Sandefjord
1
@1.27
2-1
18/07/26
Belarusian Cup
FC Slonim vs Isloch
2
@1.19
0-1
18/07/26
Iceland Division 1
Throttur vs Volsungor
1
@1.19
1-0
17/07/26
China Super League
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Over 2.5
@1.36
2-2
17/07/26
Iceland Division 2
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
1
@1.30
2-1
17/07/26
Ireland FA Cup
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
1
@1.45
4-1
17/07/26
Slovenia PRVA Liga
Celje vs Mura
Over 2.5
@1.45
2-2
16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Ferencvaros vs Vojvodina
1
@1.44
3-0
16/07/26
Conference League Qualifier
Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk
1
@1.22
1-0
16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Over 1.5
@1.17
1-2
16/07/26
Europa League Qualifier
Vestri vs Qarabag
Over 2.5
@1.42
0-3
16/07/26
Iceland Divsion 1
Afturelding vs Leiknir
1
@1.39
3-2

Stats are currently being built in the background. Please check back shortly.

Win Rate Grid

Tip type × day of week · last 180 days

Tip TypeMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
1 71% 90% 83% 69% 77% 79% 73%
1X 67% 89% 80% 88% 78% 83% —
2 55% 79% 83% 77% 71% 76% 75%
Over 1.5 69% 87% 67% 78% 86% 100% —
Over 2.5 64% 67% 77% 76% 67% 100% 75%
X2 — 67% — — 100% — —

Reliability Tracker

Comparing win rate across three rolling 30-day windows -- steadiest markets rise to the top

Over 1.5 Rock Steady
76.7%
0-30d
73.3%
30-60d
71.4%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

1 Rock Steady
84.3%
0-30d
76.9%
30-60d
76.2%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

2 Rock Steady
70%
0-30d
78.6%
30-60d
78.9%
60-90d

This one holds up week to week -- a dependable pick if you like predictable form.

1X A Bit Choppy
73.3%
0-30d
82.4%
30-60d
66.7%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

Over 2.5 A Bit Choppy
80%
0-30d
61.9%
30-60d
66.7%
60-90d

Some ups and downs across recent months -- solid overall, just not razor-consistent.

Rock Steady = ≤12pp swing · A Bit Choppy = 13–25pp · Streaky = >25pp. Min. 5 tips/window.


Betting Terms, Explained
BTTS
Short for Both Teams To Score -- wins if each side nets at least once, whatever the final score.
Over 1.5 Goals
Needs 2+ total goals in the match to land, regardless of which side scores them.
Over 2.5 Goals
Needs 3+ total goals in the match -- a step up in risk from Over 1.5.
Double Chance
Covers two of the three possible results in one bet (e.g. Home win or Draw), trading some odds for extra safety.
Asian Handicap
A goal head-start or deficit applied to a team before kickoff, used to level out mismatched sides.
Correct Score
A bet on the exact final scoreline -- long odds, low hit rate, high reward.


Win Rate Tracker
7d30d90d
80.1% Excellent Last 30 days
0%50%100%
Won145 tips
Lost36 tips
145
Won
36
Lost
@1.28
Avg Odds
+2.5%
ROI
181
Settled
18+ Gamble responsibly BeGambleAware

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